Three weeks to go until the start of the 2009 college football season, the preseason USA Today The top 25 coaches poll is out, my favorite team is not in the top 25 teams and has no chance to play in the national championship. What what?
“No way, man,” as Garth (Dana Carvey) would say to Wayne (Mike Myers) in saturday night live episodes and in the movie Wayne’s World.
“True,” Wayne would reply, meaning, in this case, that any team that doesn’t rank in the preseason Coaches’ Poll could play in the national championship game at the end of the season if it played a perfect season.
The only problem is that no team has ever done it. Alabama almost became the first team to do it last year, was unranked and won its first 12 games to climb to the top of the BCS standings for 5 weeks before losing to Florida 31-20 in the BCS championship game. Southeastern Conference (SEC).
The Crimson Tide did not handle their first loss of the season well, losing again to Utah 31-17 in the Sugar Bowl.
Alabama’s experience shows how difficult it is to win the national championship when you start the season unranked in the preseason coaches’ poll. It is much more than difficult, it is almost impossible since no team that was not in the top 10 in the preseason has reached the title game during the last 5 seasons.
In fact, in the entire history of the 11-year Bowl Championship Series, no team has started a season without being classified by the coaches and played in the national championship game.
Here’s a great reason why: When you’re ranked in the preseason poll, you’re supposed to be among the best teams in the nation, even if you’re not. So if you’re in the top 25 and you lose to another top 25 team, it’s no big deal. You literally have to lose to an unranked team to lose credibility early on.
An example would be if this year’s No. 1 (Florida), No. 2 (Texas) or No. 3 (Oklahoma) teams were beaten earlier in the year by another top 25 team, they would still be the favorites to win. play in the BCS title game if it’s their only loss.
A second reason is that the Coaches Survey is more accurate than you think. Even the Harris Poll taken after 5 weeks of play had EXACTLY the same teams in his top 25. Heck, 20 of the teams were either ranked the same or within one spot of where they were in the Coaches Poll.
I graduated from Michigan State University and imagine my dismay when my Spartans ranked 27th, trailing the preseason poll by two places. So even if Michigan State were 12-0, the odds are that a higher-ranked team with one loss would get the nod for the title game.
Utah was unranked in last year’s preseason poll, undefeated on the season (13-0) and beat Alabama 31-17 in the Sugar Bowl when the Utes were shut out of the title game by Florida (13-1 ) and Oklahoma (12-2). This is life.
The fact that Florida ranks first in this year’s survey is not unreasonable. The Gators won the National Championship in 2006 and 2008. Quarterback Tim Tebow (2007 Heisman Trophy winner as a sophomore) returns, 7 starters are back on his offense and his entire defensive team (two safeties no less ) came back.
No. 2 Texas returns with 16 starters and quarterback Colt McCoy. No. 3 Oklahoma returns to QB Sam Bradford (last year’s Heisman winner), TE Jermaine Gresham and DT Gerald McCoy (all three likely to be first-round NFL picks).
After doing some research on this year’s 25 preseason favorites, I was upset to learn that two of the picks, No. 16 Boise State and No. 23 Notre Dame, will play only one other top 25 pick during the season.
I personally like the Fighting Irish. I supported them growing up in Michigan. I also recognize that they are an independent team that is not tied to a league and would not win as many games as they have over the years if they played in the SEC, Big Ten or Pac 10. They also attract a national audience due to their legacy and are the nets favorite due to their attraction, which means they go to bowling games and bigger bowling games when other teams are serving more.
Another seven play only two other top 25 picks-No. 2 Texas, No. 8 Penn State, No. 10 Mississippi, No. 17 TCU, No. 20 South Carolina, No. 21 Iowa and No. 22 Nebraska.
Another eleven play three other top 25 picks-No. 1 Florida, No. 5 Alabama, No. 6 Ohio State, No. 7 Virginia Tech, No. 11 Oklahoma State, No. 12 California, No. 13 Georgia, No. 15 Georgia Tech, No. 18 Utah, No. 19th State of Florida and No. 25th State of Oregon.
And who is playing really tough schedules to stay alive en route to the national championship game? Only 3 teams-No. 4 Oklahoma, No. 9 LSU and No. 24 BYU play against 4 other top 25 teams.
Does anyone play with other 5 top 25 teams? Well, yes-no. 4 USC and No. 14 Oregon, both from the Pac 10 Conference on the West Coast, and a far cry from SEC teams in the Southeast.
USC plays No. 6 Ohio State on the road, No. 12 California on the road, No. 14 Oregon on the road, No. 23 Notre Dame on the road, and No. 25 Oregon State on the road. Oregon faces No. 4 USC, No. 12 California, No. 18 Utah and No. 25 Oregon State at home, and No. 16 Boise State on the road.
But who REALLY plays the toughest schedule against the top 25 teams? LSU test. The Tigers host No. 1 Florida at home, but then must travel to No. 5 Alabama, No. 10 Mississippi and No. 13 Georgia.
So what’s my complaint about letting Michigan State out of the top 25? Just this: The Spartans host No. 8 Penn State and No. 21 Iowa, and travel to No. 23 Notre Dame. 3 top 25 teams play.
Heck, in my book, Michigan State has as many top 25 businesses as Boise State, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Iowa, North Carolina, TCU, Mississippi, Penn State and Texas, all of whom play only 2 top 25 opponents this season.
Remember this: As important as Oklahoma is, the Sooners have lost their last 5 BCS games.
College football is much more interesting than professional football because the level of talent is much lower than at the professional level. That means the big teams can get pissed off on any given Saturday, and the teams that they forecast to do nothing this year can come out on top, like Alabama did for 12 straight weeks last year.
So let the games begin. Let’s leave this on the field of play. We’ll see at the end of the season who deserves to be in the top 25 and who doesn’t. I look forward to seeing the Michigan State Spartans among the top 25 teams at the end of the season.
Copyright © 2009 Ed Bagley