Fall camps are underway and the regular season is here soon, which means getting an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time, and Matt Fargo is here to help you understand. what to expect next year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 college football preview.
#18 – Arizona St. Sun Devils 7-5 SU; 6-6 ATS
Fargo’s Take The Sun Devils have been to three bowl games in the five years Dirk Koetter has been head coach, but none of them have been very glamorous and that needs to change. The offense has been spectacular in all those years, but it’s been the defense that has held Arizona St. back. After finishing 48th in total defense in 2004, the Sun Devils dropped to 114th last year and lost three games in which the offense amassed at least 31 points. With such an explosive offense, losing four games by at least 10 points is inexcusable. Immediate help is needed and it looks like help may be on the way. The quarterback controversies occurred at the beginning of fall training, but have since died down, so the Sun Devils have one goal and that is to become more competitive in the Pac Ten. If the defense can improve to anywhere near its 2004 numbers, that goal is very achievable.
Returning starters on offense – 8 The quarterback situation was rocky during the spring and fall, but that’s no longer the case. Sophomore Rudy Carpenter has been named the starter and that prompted Sam Keller to drop out of school and transfer to Nebraska. Carpenter was incredible filling in for the injured Keller, as he completed more than 68 percent of his passes while throwing for 17 touchdowns and just two interceptions. Now the task at hand is finding a replacement for All-Pac Ten wide receiver Derek Hagan. Junior Rudy Burgess appears ready for the challenge after grabbing 59 balls last year. Tight end Zach Miller is one of the best in the country at his position and is a preseason All-American. The offensive line returns largely intact as running back Keegan Herring rushed for 870 yards as a freshman. Basically all systems work.
Returning starters on defense – 5 After allowing only 24 points per game in their first four games, the defense imploded. He allowed 35 points in the second half to USC and it was all downhill from there. Easily the worst defense in the conference, Arizona St. comes in this season ranked fifth-best in the Pac Ten. That’s because of a defensive line that sits just behind USC and for good reason. Three transfers — Loren Howard (Northwestern), Tranell Morant (Florida) and Michael Marquardt (BYU) — will take care of the line and the run defense that was ranked 89th in the country could be one of the best. Linebackers remain a concern with the departures of Dale Robinson and Jamar Williams, but the secondary should improve greatly. Two starters are back in safety and while the corners need to be replaced, anything can be better than last year after finishing 112th in air defense.
Schedule Facing Northern Arizona in Game 1 should show us how the defense has fared even though it’s against a 1-AA opponent. The real test comes the following week at home against Nevada, which will also have one of the best offenses in the nation. The schedule really gets stiff after that with a trip to Colorado followed by three games against the other three contenders in the conference: California, Oregon and USC. To make matters worse, games against the Bears and Trojans are outside of Sun Devils Stadium. After that four-game stretch, the rest of the scoreboard will feel like child’s play with four indoor wins followed by the final two games against UCLA and improved Arizona.
You can bet on… At least the Arizona St. games will be entertaining. The offense is going to score a lot of points and even though the defense is improved, there are still problems. Koetter hopes he made the right call with Carpenter as his quarterback and if something goes wrong, there’s help waiting in the wings. At least Keller will start next season in Nebraska. Arizona St. is just 4-13 ATS as an underdog on the road since Koetter took over in 2001 and much of that failure has to do with defense failing to stop anyone. Whether or not that changes this season remains to be seen, but the Sun Devils will be in that role for their first three away games of the season. Arizona St. has also covered just six of its last 20 conference games on the road.